Monday, August 3, 2009

The SnP: where we're at.

The broad market is clearly overbought but only to a moderate statistically relevant level. SnP is still well within my modified S.D. channel (20-day Standard Deviation +/- yesterdays midpoint[yellow lines]) and within the +2 S.D. level measured off the 20 dma [blue lines]. S.D. is increasing as the Average True Range and VIX (not a good measure in a rising market but worth watching) are staying flat.

The statistically significant resistance for a blow-off is, for the time being*, in the mid to upper 1020's. A move into the 1024-1064 level, for the time being*, would indicate an extreme, statistically significant level of being overbought.

* As these are dynamic(changing) levels their absolute value is only relevant right now, as the market moves they will change w/ it.