U.S. Northeast May Have Coldest Winter in DecadeSept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Northeast may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group.
“Weak El Ninos are notorious for cold and snowy weather on the Eastern seaboard,” Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. “About 70 percent to 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino will deliver the goods in terms of above-normal heating demand and cold weather. It’s pretty good odds.”...
...U.S. inventories of distillate fuels, which include heating oil, are at their highest since January 1983, the U.S. Energy Department said Sept. 23. Stockpiles of 170.8 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 18 are 28 percent above the five-year average.
Almanac predicts bitterly cold winter for parts of U.S. (Sep 2)
...The longtime periodical, published since 1818 and famous for its long-range weather predictions, is out with its annual winter forecast, which says Old Man Winter is really going to hammer folks in the Midwest and upper Great Lakes region with very cold and very snowy conditions...
...But don't let your guard down if you live along the East or West coasts.
Farmer's Almanac managing editor Sandi Duncan says no one will be immune to the rough weather this winter...
Could increased demand from colder weather mitigate demand destruction from economic contraction and a build-up in inventories? The market seems to have already digested inventory and demand trends so a surprisingly cold winter could push oil/fuel prices up which -alongside monetary/fiscal reflation and a weakening dollar- could lead to increased cost-push, price inflation. This could have a double effect on consumption: 1) the obvious displacement of discretionary spending and, 2) a ripple effect of cost side pricing pressure throughout the producing/servicing sectors and the consequent loss of consumer purchasing power.
