This, along with this, should trouble those predicting a strong recovery for the mortgage/housing market in 2010 and/or 2011.
From the Bloomberg article on shadow foreclosure inventory:
...Legal snarls, bureaucracy and well-meaning efforts to keep families in their homes are slowing the flow of properties headed toward foreclosure sales, even when borrowers are in deep distress. While that buys time for families to work out their problems, some analysts believe the delays are prolonging the mortgage crisis and creating a growing "shadow" inventory of pent-up supply that will eventually hit the market...
...As of July, mortgage companies hadn't begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by LPS Applied Analytics, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn't yet acquired the property. The figures don't include home-equity loans and other second mortgages.
Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn't made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn't begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren't in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier...
...According to Collateral Analytics, a housing research firm, homes that have been foreclosed on typically sell at a 10% to 50% discount...
..But the number of foreclosures is expected to increase in the fourth quarter as mortgage-servicing companies determine who is eligible for a loan modification and who isn't. "We are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running" for a loan modification or other alternatives, says a Bank of America Corp. spokeswoman. Foreclosure sales had dropped to "abnormally low" levels in response to government efforts to stem foreclosures, she adds...
Some day - eons from now - the human species will evolve (assuming we don't destroy ourselves first) and finally accept this simple truism: when you try to reflate a debt deflation brought on by the collapse of an asset bubble all you do is prolong the contraction without a compensatory drop in severity(at the onset). (Although, the drop can be cushioned in the short-term with counter-cyclical fiscal and easy monetary policy; and we all know that in the world of political-economy there is no long-term.)
Remember: bubble = problem; deflation = solution. Crazy, I know.
