Thursday, September 10, 2009

SnP Update

-SnP continues its unrelenting grind. How its running along the upper band of the modified S.D channel(yellow); attempting to move into 3 S.D territory(red); putting in a 5th up wave after an a-b-c corrective back in early summer; the continual death of volatility and bar range; and the "crowded" long trade are all factors, among many others, that make one bearish in the short-term (up to 10 trading days). We've had a bullish week, mainly thanks to USD weakness. Friday afternoon trimming/liquidating of carry trades and purging of excessive bullishness? Looks likely, especially if the market can trade up early on volume. We did open up above and rally away from the yearly pivot which will be an important level to keep an eye on tomorrow if we fail.
Longterm still looks as if market is nowhere near over-bought(based on OGD 2), and in the current environment of easing, reflations, and counter-cyclical claptrap we would be fools to fight the trend. Until the next shoe drops its back to the daily grind with the occasional intra-day implosion.